This guys full of horse sh*t
Excerpt from TheStreet.com - regarding housing and Citigroup analyst
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On Monday, the group rallied after Citigroup analyst Stephen Kim upgraded several stocks in the sector, saying fundamentals are not likely to recover in the near-term, but the stocks themselves have hit a bottom and should benefit from a trading rally in coming months.
“Timing the bottom in a volatile group like the homebuilders is never easy, and catalysts in these dark times will inevitably amount to a mere flicker,” Kim wrote in his note.
“However, we are not to trying to suggest that trends in the homebuilding sector are about to get much better; rather the purpose of this piece is to point out that they have never been worse. And in this sector, with its long history of feverish booms and catastrophic busts, it is precisely when things have gotten this bad that the stocks start looking good,” Kim said.
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This guy’s got to be kidding. Those comments make no sense. (ok, ok. I’m not an analyst) Remember that “past results is not a certain indication of future performance”. But even still, the housing market still seems soft and it will likely stay that way for at least another year. Home builder stock prices too low? I think it can go lower. The data released today also shows that pending home sales dropped 6.5% in August (21.5% from a year ago). In addition, a colder (or wetter) than expected winter might keep for sale signs up.
Me = bearish on housing (for now).
Note: KBH was not one of the stocks that got upgraded. I wonder why. Regardless, with options and expiration dates, timing is important. Will the market reflect the continued reality of the depressed housing? And more importantly, convince keen investors to sell off more KBH? We’ll see. 